12-Month Price Forecast: How to Build Scenarios Without Guessing

12‑Month Price Forecast: Build Scenarios Without Guesswork 🧭

Forecasting prices for the next 12 months doesn’t require clairvoyance — it requires a method. This guide gives a clear workflow to build baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, identify triggers, and test how each scenario affects your decisions.

Why scenarios beat single forecasts

A single point prediction can be misleading. Scenarios force you to consider different outcomes based on plausible changes in market drivers. They help you prepare contingency plans instead of hoping for a single “correct” future.

Step 1 — Gather the right inputs 📋

Focus on signals that matter:

• Demand patterns: search activity, transaction volumes, rental enquiries.
• Supply changes: new developments, construction timelines, cancellations.
• Financing environment: loan availability, lending terms, currency considerations.
• Local factors: tourism flows, seasonal demand, infrastructure projects.
• Policy and tax changes that could affect transaction costs.

Talk to local agents, developers and property managers — on‑the‑ground insight often reveals trends before reports do.

Step 2 — Identify key price drivers

Select 3–5 drivers most relevant to your target area. Typical examples:

• Change in investor interest from abroad;
• Surge or slowdown in new supply;
• Shifts in credit availability;
• Variations in tourism or seasonal occupancy.

Describe how each driver influences prices if it improves or deteriorates.

Step 3 — Build three scenarios and define triggers

• Baseline: current trends continue.
• Optimistic: conditions improve and prices rise more quickly.
• Pessimistic: demand softens or supply increases, causing slower growth or correction.

For each scenario, list clear triggers — observable events that make one scenario more likely (e.g., major new project announced, notable change in lending terms, sudden drop in demand).

Step 4 — Stress‑test your deal 🔍

Model the worst‑case and see how it affects income, holding period and financing. Ask practical questions:

• Can rental income cover payments under the pessimistic scenario?
• How long could you hold the asset if prices stagnate?
• What exit options remain (sell, rent longer, refinance)?

This helps determine acceptable entry prices and backup plans.

Practical tools and checklist ✅

• Maintain a small database of comparable listings and track price changes.
• Keep a short dashboard of indicators to watch weekly or monthly.
• Use a decision matrix: scenarios vs. actions (buy, wait, renegotiate, choose another asset).
• Consider buying in stages or selecting assets with better liquidity.

Decision matrix — how to act

Create a simple table: rows are scenarios, columns are actions. For each cell, define the condition to take that action (e.g., «buy if baseline holds and financing is favorable»).

Behavioral tips: keep emotion out of timing

Avoid searching for the perfect market timing. Instead, control what you can: limit maximum purchase price, set time horizons for holding, and predefine exit strategies. That reduces panic decisions when the market moves.

Applying this in Georgia and Batumi 🌊

Coastal markets often show seasonal swings tied to tourism. Urban centres can react differently to financing shifts. Mix assets to balance seasonal income with year‑round demand, and always account for currency exposure if your financing or clientele are foreign.

Final checklist

• Data collected? ✅
• Key drivers identified? ✅
• Three scenarios with triggers? ✅
• Stress test completed? ✅
• Decision matrix ready? ✅

If any box is unchecked, pause and gather more information before committing.

Want help adapting these scenarios to a specific property or neighbourhood? Our team will tailor forecasts and a decision plan to your situation. Contact BuyHome for personalised support and property selection: https://buyhome.ge/en/search or view available apartments: https://buyhome.ge/en/apartments